Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 12.414701 14.190318 16.114418 18.352330 20.881699 23.649868 26.907010
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.715731 12.075287 14.835765 18.295945 22.509175 27.464463 33.726082
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.141160 10.677915 13.794862 17.892258 23.121528 29.555676 38.055286
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.120072 9.793334 13.222888 17.923107 24.172533 32.168593 43.144262
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.438722 9.227026 12.939507 18.212469 25.472659 35.075626 48.691368
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.829799 8.674663 12.593300 18.343175 26.515010 37.653168 53.913739
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.234503 8.067084 12.094098 18.184069 27.096559 39.584659 58.311540
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.822486 7.677052 11.855296 18.351679 28.117434 42.150710 63.714709
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.577260 7.508123 11.914751 18.943047 29.771172 45.693607 70.710573
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.171025 7.047550 11.488675 18.752027 30.215552 47.456866 75.140842
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.637169 6.331679 10.604113 17.769566 29.354525 47.174520 76.412211
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.456353 6.177368 10.594195 18.167223 30.672301 50.288851 83.085434
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.277286 6.016128 10.568919 18.551496 32.016670 53.560860 90.267653
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.007620 5.673904 10.214786 18.359353 32.397599 55.311893 95.104794
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.738994 5.307207 9.785929 17.998935 32.455616 56.514837 99.074949
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.557553 5.082347 9.584740 18.014864 33.148832 58.796107 104.954635
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.434640 4.955086 9.545505 18.310798 34.340577 61.972141 112.511641
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.298192 4.789318 9.421855 18.440411 35.236557 64.676813 119.383616
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.135060 4.556452 9.154487 18.281098 35.590821 66.440998 124.678492
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.027157 4.424154 9.066232 18.449352 36.551474 69.319916 132.094580
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.977424 4.406301 9.196642 19.043761 38.342396 73.781501 142.597024
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.842123 4.197728 8.935446 18.851757 38.616165 75.471115 148.076180
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.634539 3.816260 8.298332 17.864361 37.280186 74.087317 147.731449